Executive summary
Technology waves can improve life and still create painful market shakeouts.
Major technologies often arrive with a familiar sequence: invention, enthusiasm, overinvestment, disappointment, consolidation, and then practical adoption.
That does not mean AI is only a bubble. It means the technology can be real while investor expectations still run too far ahead of durable business evidence.
The personal computer era, the dot-com period, and the mobile phone transition all show the same basic lesson. Early leaders do not always remain leaders. Many competitors appear. A smaller number become durable platforms.